Taliban moves to terrorise guests in suicide attack

On Oct 28th it was reported that The Taliban struck in Kabul, friends that we know living there were amazed what a well operated action it was! The attackers, clad in suicide vests and armed with grenades and machine guns struck at dawn on the 28th. six UN staff died in the two hour fire fight that followed.

Orla Guerin was in South Wazaristan on news at 10 tonight and she was able to see the mountains where Hackney Mullah and the village of Kot Kai where he oversees the Taliban in the country. What can we possible do with such an organisation? What they are doing is playing through fear and suggesting that they do not allow the education of women.

Newspapers are running the story that Karzai's brother Ahmed Wali Karzai was on the CIA payroll for years a suspected player in the country's opium trade and was paid over 8 years for services including helping to recruit an Afghan paramilitary force as was reported in a US paper.
There was a warning that anyone working on the Nov 7th run off election was at risk.

Courage in Afghanistan

A man that was injured 11 weeks ago was so inspirational and with such bad injuries that even the Duchess of Cornwall who visited Headley Court yesterday Oct 22nd, was overwhelmed. She saw Rifleman Craig Wood who was just 18 and had been blown up by the Taliban on his first patrol. Losing three limbs and having 27 pints of blood he was given only a 50% chance of survival but he is facing this horrendous injury with an awe inspiring determination. He is able to say to his girlfriend that sometimes he wakes up and starts crying. "I have to make the best of it! I have lost a number of good colleagues, I know how lucky I am, in a way"

That "in a way" resounds through that article. In this mad war, who is going to remember Craig Wood, but his family and friends and the celebreties that saw him.

Now Karsai has accepted the two man presidential battle so he will take on Abdullah Abdullah after the UN found that hundreds and thousands of votes were fake. The contest will be on Novenber 7th. One hopes that that will go off with not too much bloodshed. The same paper reveals that the US are undermining Pakistan's offensive against the Taliban abandoning border posts and allowing them through to South Waziristan.

These Afghan men and women are fighting for their existence. There are some who would like a "Loya Jurga" in Afghanistan or to bring Journalists over to the UK. It would be great to keep these doors of communication open, so that the population would not feel so marginilised.

Where do we go from here?

This is a really muddling situation, which Obama is trying to see his way through, as Andrew Sullivan states in his article this Sunday October 4th will he send the extra troops? which some members of the senate are all for, but the American public is not certain of and there is a lot riding on this decision and a lot of lives that could be lost.

Now, with him just being awarded a Nobel peace prize very unexpectedly "what has he done" I hear you ask? It's just two months since he took over. Well I am sure that his stance about the nuclear issue has helped - and he is all for more countries to disarm, and he wants to distance himself from the Bush premiership. He calls for more countries to unite and made the pivotal speech to the Muslims in Cairo saying that the US were holding out a hand of friendship.

Now Leitifa (which is a pseudonym) has written "My Forbidden Face" about her growing up in Kabul unable to go to Kabul university as the Taliban did not agree with women being educated and to become a journalist and was able to publish her book. She comes from a well educated family with parents both working, her mother a doctor and her father running an export business.

I don't think we can know what she must have gone through to write this book, we from a "democratic" country without the fear of being arrested by the Taliban for being a woman walking about outside without being in the presence of a man either a husband or a relative.

Nadir gets the Turban

The Pashtun tribe from which the Afghan royals come have chosen their leader. At a tribal gathering they placed the turban on HRH Prince Nadir Naim.

Is this the end of the Taliban?

It was reported in The Independant on Mon Sept 21st from Islamabad that the infamous Sher Mohammed Qasab was captured in a raid at Mingora, he was wounded and his three sons were killed. A military spokesman said "He was severely wounded and succumbed to his wounds early this morning." Another Military Official said the death of Qasab who killed many civilians, policemen and troops would reassure the residents of the tourist valley that the "Taliban were finished!" Pakistani troops have made significent gains against the militants in their Swat offensive after Taliban advances raised fears for the nuclear armed Pakistan future and contributed to a slide in investor confidence.

Maybe the Taliban have just moved across the border into Afghanistan.

There is in the Helmand province a couple of buildings known as "Rose Cottage" here 60 soldiers are making the "final journey" home, as this has been the deadliest summer of the British forces time in Afghanistan. A couple of soldiers with decades of experience between them have been in charge of the army's morgue, this must have been one of the most depressing jobs.

Could this be because of the British soldier unlike the U. S. soldier does not have armour to cover their groin and neck. A senior surgeon said that "We have seen a lot of groin and neck injuries in U.K. not otherwise seen in US Marines because of this piece of equipment" Wheras the US Kevlar is a lighter body armour and has the important groin plate and they have modular neck and shoulder protection!!

It is not a lot to ask that in giving there lives for this cause they have the resouces to finish the job.

Helmand Province

This troubled area with occasional Suicide bombers (though 80% of the deaths amongst allied armed forces are from IEDs) in fact on the 17th of Sept a member of our forces in the Gereshk district died in a blast on foot patrol in southern Afghanistan. The Afghans from this area have banded together and driven the Taliban out just as the British did in the Civil War in the fourteenth century. As in Northern Ireland and The Balkans it takes the people to say NO. Think of the children, mothers and fathers even in this country with the MPs etc taking a huge whack of bonuses as a golden handshake! Northern Rock and the Lehman Brothers - what did they ever do for humanity? I am sure they would say that they individually may have done a lot, but the public perception of them is dubious.

These families in the Hellman province just want recognition from the West, as there is life after Poppies. Unfortunately Kasai and his brother are implicated by this and Kasai has given prominent roles to members of his family.

A soldier who comes from the 2nd Royal Tank Regiment died in Selly Oak Birmingham and I hear today that 16 were killed the in area today - they were the Italian soldiers who were killed.

Meanwhile, as Kasai says the elections were a success, the soft spoken Grant Kipper a Canadian working as a member of the UN, is not so sure.

NCF Afghanistan Working Group Report

The Afghanistan Working Group has recently finished this policy paper after a meeting a few weeks ago. In this brief paper we address the central problem of state credibility (which Karzai has been complicit in destroying), call for better military and economic aid coordination and a re-thought strategy of governance that concentrates on local, rather than central, systems.

We hope you find our ideas interesting and we look forward to any feedback that you can provide.

Afghanistan:

Forging Credibility

The fundamental aim of Western intervention in Afghanistan is to establish long-term stability and pave the way for economic and human development.

Corruption is the most pressing issue in Afghanistan. Endemic corruption invalidates state credibility. In order for Afghanistan to move towards stability and peace, the state must gain the faith of its citizens. This requires urgent reform of the political and bureaucratic leadership.

Western policy in Afghanistan should focus on developing a credible government that reverses corruption and captures the faith of the Afghan people and foreign investors. This credibility will provide a foundation:

(1) For an Afghan security strategy that delivers safety and stability at a local level

(2) For a co-ordinated national economic development strategy delivered at grassroots level.

By a coordinated effort, the US and UK governments could steer a reformed Afghan administration towards combating corruption rather than proliferating it.

This paper is divided into four parts that provide recommended guidelines for Western policy

Part 1: Diplomatic Leverage to develop Afghan state credibility

I. Development of a strategy, supported by a unified international community, of diplomatic leverage to co-opt the existing Afghan state to clear out its corrupt leaders.

A. Convene a national loya jirga to select replacement ministers that fit agreed criteria of transparency and credibility.

B. “Sticks”: Hard-line measures to force the Afghan administration into action.

1. Threaten to withhold all international community donations from the Afghan government.

2. Threaten to place the ANSF under direct ISAF command.

3. Threaten to withdraw the support which organisations such as OPIC currently give to private sector investors in Afghanistan.[1]

4. Raise the possibility of terminating all reconstruction efforts currently administered through governmental organizations (USAID, NATO, UN, etc.)

C. “Carrots”: Strong incentives for investment in Afghanistan as it becomes increasingly credible.

1. Technical and other assistance in the development of markets and financial institutions

2. Provide contracts to Afghan firms on a preferential basis if they can provide transparent accounting and results

Part 2: Localized governance to play to Afghanistan’s strengths

I. Afghanistan’s strong tradition of local governance should be better supported as a governance development strategy.

A. The Taliban initially gained, and is gaining, support because it offers “justice” with an alacrity that Western courts cannot within a familiar socio-religious context.

B. Local governance allows the population to better monitor its officials and reduces the potential of corruption by middlemen.

C. Local security should increasingly be put into the hands of local people, in coordination with the ANSF, similar to the lashkar model in Pakistan.

Part 3: International coordination to maximize military effectiveness

I. NATO and non-NATO troop contributing countries should formally agree upon one unified chain of command. This should include US forces who currently operate within a parallel command structure as Operation Enduring Freedom.

II. Concurrent with the streamlining of the ISAF command structure, a coherent and clear nationwide counter-insurgency strategy should be developed. This strategy must increase the prevalence of “clear-hold-build” provincial reconstruction teams and emphasize reconstruction and development.

III. The performance of private contractors in training the ANSF should be completely re-evaluated company by company on the basis of results achieved.

Part 4: Economic frameworks for sustainable development

I. Aid Coordination

A. All aid should be channelled by means of an “Aid Council for Afghanistan” which will co-ordinate the work of both government and non-governmental organizations.

B. Donors should work with local governments to develop a long-term strategy for aid application.

II. More use could be made of Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRTs) and the “clear-hold-build” strategy as a tool for economic development. Potentially, PRTs could operate in a role essentially subordinate to local Afghan government, creating a more joined-up approach to reconstruction.

III. Using ISAF and ANSF resources, secure commercial hubs to encourage growth. This is in parallel to, but separate from PRT activities.

IV. Consider using opium licensing and export strategies, such as the Senlis Council’s Poppy for Medicine proposal, to allow farmers to transition smoothly into a licit economy.

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[1] The Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC) is an agency of the U.S. government. OPIC helps U.S. businesses invest overseas, fosters economic development in new and emerging markets, complements the private sector in managing risks associated with foreign direct investment, and supports U.S. foreign policy.