Afghanistan’s elections were clearly far from free and fair. The biggest consequence of this largely symbolic act of “democracy” is the construction of a wider barrier between ethnic groups.
As the new government comes in nobody will really know if the results actually reflect the choices of voters. Furthermore, the scores of people who stayed home due to threats from insurgents had no say in the new government either. No administration that has been elected in such a fashion can enjoy the faith of the people.
The victor, mired in an environment of fraud and illegitimacy, will have a significant credibility problem. As a Times Online (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/world_agenda/article6810814.ece) article explains, no result coming from these elections will be seen as legitimate.
Karzai’s campaign has been accused of massive corruption in the electoral process and will be seen as completely fraudulent, diminishing any credibility Karzai’s government has acquired with non-Pashtuns in the north.
Karzai has diminished support from Pashtuns as well, thus, he has alienated both ethnic groups. Thus, a Karzai government will not only lack ethnic support from any group, it will be even weaker and illegitimate than it is now and therefore clearly unable to reconcile ethnic issues.
On the other hand, if the election monitors find evidence of widespread fraud, the numbers may turn out in Abdullah’s favor. Again, this resulting government will have minimal legitimacy among ethnic Pashtuns, leaving them feeling relatively deprived of a say in government.
Historically, in Afghanistan and elsewhere, governments unable to make credible commitments to the population as a whole tend to fall into a system where only specific elites from certain sectors of the population enjoy commitments, or benefits, from the government. Some portions of the population will then be relatively excluded from state services than others – the victor’s supporters will be reaping the benefits while the opposition will see little to no benefits from the new administration.
Before this occurs, the new administration will be presented with a very difficult choice. It will have to renege on any campaign promises it may have made in order to enter into new commitments with opposition parties to build the faith of other certain ethnic groups in the state.
If the new administration does not happen, any work to blur the lines of sectarian division done to date will be erased by further mobilization along ethnic lines. This may not spell the end for Afghanistan, but it will certainly be a step backwards in the nation-building process.
2 comments:
The only answer - in reality - is to get rid of Karzai. He is simply too incompetent and should never have been backed by the West
Hi Bharath! Great article!
A heavier military presence needs to occur; similar to the surge that occured in Irag. If this does not happen, our time, lives and money to help this country while fighting terrorism will be in vain; providing afghanistans no hope or freedom to vote without fear.
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