A Fashionable Spring

So far, 2011 has brought with it a worrying trend among Taliban members: the fashion of assassinations. Six government officials have been killed by Taliban members since January; four of them from Kandahar, Taliban’s former stronghold, including President Karzai’s younger brother, who served as Chief of Kandahar Provincial Council. Generally, many of those assassinated are claimed to be close to Karzai, wrapped up in allegations of corruption and illegitimate exertion of power.

While the assassinations are not necessarily destabilizing enough to cause a government collapse, the effects are extremely disruptive because it takes time to choose replacements. As demonstrated in June with Karzai’s attempt to form his cabinet, appointing governmental officials is a slow and painful process in Afghanistan.

However, beyond the practical consequences of the assassinations come the analytical interpretations: what does this say about security in the respective provinces? Does this show a strengthened or weakened Taliban? How can the Afghan government protect the people if they cannot even protect themselves?

On the one hand, NATO leaders and diplomats have said the recent spate of assassinations is a sign of the Taliban’s weakness and desperation in the nearly decade-old Afghanistan war. On the other hand, a spokesperson for the Afghan National Army has commented: “The message is clear. They want to show their power. These attacks are a psychological victory for the Taliban”.

Ironically, though to a grotesque extent, are the allegations of US use of military contractors, or ‘mercenaries’, in Afghanistan; press reports say that Blackwater is still at the centre of secret programs, despite CIA’s recent announcement that they have stopped using them. Taking out significant al-Qaeda and Taliban groups is their aim.

Whether the Taliban’s fashionable technique of assassinating is just a copy-paste of mercenary methods adopted in weak and desperate times, or actually an extension of their general approach implying strength and confidence is for no one but the Taliban to tell. However, with a troop withdrawal around the corner leaving a fragile national security system it is definitely an alarming trend.