Afghanistan at boiling point

Sixteen Afghan civilians, nine of them children, were killed by a rogue US Army soldier in the early hours of Sunday morning. The soldier, stationed at a base in Panjwai, Kandahar province, acted alone in what many speculate was a pre-meditated attack. Eye-witness accounts are confused and contradictory but suggest a helicopter was present in the area, perhaps sent out to apprehend the rogue soldier. The soldier has not been named but the AP news agency quoted officials saying that he is 38, married with at least two children. He had served three tours of duty in Iraq - being deployed to Afghanistan for the first time in December - and has served in the army for 11 years. It is believed he may have suffered a nervous breakdown.

This is not the first time soldiers have intentionally killed civilians. In 2010, four soldiers killed three unarmed men in Maiwand district. But the timing of these killings are significant. Afghans are still reeling from the accidental burning of Qurans in late February which led to widespread riots which left over 30 people dead, including two U.S. military officers killed Saturday in a heavily guarded Afghan government ministry. This came shortly after a video leaked showing US Marines urinating on the corpses of men they had killed. The Taliban have threatened a violent retaliation to the killings which has reignited anti-American sentiment and further undermined the delicate American battle for Afghan hearts and minds.

The great irony in Afghanistan is that the efforts American generals and senior government officials to gain local support for the Western military presence has been undermined not by the large number killings of civilians which have come as the result of intentional drone strikes or other forms of military engagement. Rather it is a few random, unpredictable scandals for which the US is not at fault that have led to a break down in Afghan-American relations.  

Obama has interpreted the growing frequency of such scandals as an indication that it is time to withdraw, but perhaps it is the withdrawal itself which has strained relations. The announced withdrawal has changed the mind set of both Afghans and Americans. The top command insist that America continues to have a long term interest in a stable and prosperous Afghanistan but it is hard to communicate these sentiments down through the chain of command to the soldiers on the ground. Ordinary troops no longer feel the US has a great stake in the future of Afghanistan and even fear they have lost the support of the American people. Similarly, ordinary Afghans are preparing for the near future when western troops will be gone which means revaluating their alliances and where they invest their support.

Over the next few days, Afghanistan will be on a knife edge. Some bases have doubled the number of soldiers on watch duty while others have begun guarding their barracks as well. Initial reports suggest protests have not reached the levels seen last week after the accidental burning of Qurans but regardless of whether Afghans choose to take to the streets, their faith in the American presence is waning.