The future for Afghanistan looks increasingly bleak

On the 2nd of May the United States and Afghanistan finally signed the Strategic Partnership Agreement.  A deal that will shape the future relationship between the two countries as the US withdraws from the region, and give additional stability to the Afghan government. However despite the US pledging to support its ally beyond the 2014 withdrawal date, and even talk of a negotiated peace with the Taliban, there is still real concern that the country is again descending into chaos.


President Hamid Karzai’s government is weak, and regarded as untrustworthy and corrupt by the Afghan people and their neighbours. The people of Afghanistan cannot identify with the current government; increasingly the Taliban have more control over the country outside of urban centres.  The scope of the Taliban’s influence is only going to spread further as the NATO troops withdraw; despite the rhetoric from the various coalition armed forces, the Afghan Security Forces are nowhere near ready to take over policing the country.


Reports leaked to the BBC suggested that many Afghan people prefer the Taliban to the Western forces and the Afghan authorities.  The Taliban have more presence across the country than the American led coalition and are seen as less corrupt than the Afghan authorities.  For a largely illiterate and deeply religious populace, the swift harsh justice the Taliban provide is preferable to the inconsistent, poorly administered rule that Karzai’s government offers.  In addition the Taliban are increasingly organised, and more responsive than the central government. The Taliban officials make regular visits to small towns and villages, and even administer a system of taxation, justice and social support to areas they control.


Sources inside the country told the NCF of their concern for the future of Afghanistan. They highlight the failure of the Afghan security services to provide stability to the country as their chief reason to worry. There is the principle fear of the spread of the Taliban’s influence across the country but also of a failure of the intelligence services to prevent attacks from insurgents.


Leaked security reports detail that security services in Afghanistan had prior warning of many of the attacks that took place during April this year. The documents give details of who the Taliban planned to attack as well the locations that they targeted. These oversights are often put down to ‘intelligence failures’; principally because the sources informing the intelligence services are not properly assessed and verified, and the warnings are ignored.


Furthermore our sources stressed the problems they faced as investors in Afghanistan. The withdrawal of American troops also means a withdrawal of American funding, and with that comes a large drop off in foreign investment, scared that the country may disintegrate into a state of civil war. This means that Afghanistan’s small, fragile economy is certain to falter. Additionally, beyond the dangers of attacks from insurgent groups, the sheer weight of corporate bureaucracy and institutional corruption paralyzes progress.


All in all the future for Afghanistan beyond 2014 is bleak. The Taliban’s influence across the country spreads, and Karzai’s unpopular government looks unsustainable without backing from NATO. The Strategic Partnership Agreement brings a modicum of stability to the country short term, but in reality it is little more than a means of covering the West’s strategic withdrawal from Afghanistan. For those who hoped the Afghanistan could be a progressive integrated nation, these are dark times indeed.

      T. J. Callingham